“A recent series of papers by Charles T Perretti and coll

“A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the

discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call the true model myth”. Should ecologists go on using the Screening Library molecular weight demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated selleck with the fitted to data

parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.”
“Freshwater mussels are among animals having two different, Lonafarnib in vitro gender-specific mitochondrial genomes. We sequenced complete female mitochondrial genomes from

five individuals of Anodonta anatina, a bivalve species common in palearctic ecozone. The length of the genome was variable: 15,637-15,653 bp. This variation was almost entirely confined to the non-coding parts, which constituted approximately 5% of the genome. Nucleotide diversity was moderate, at 0.3%. Nucleotide composition was typically biased towards AT (66.0%). All genes normally seen in animal mtDNA were identified, as well as the ORF characteristic for unionid mitochondrial genomes, bringing the total number of genes present to 38. If this additional ORF does encode a protein, it must evolve under a very relaxed selection since all substitutions within this gene were non-synonymous. The gene order and structure of the genome were identical to those of all female mitochondrial genomes described in unionid bivalves except the Gonideini.”
“Background: Large multicentre studies of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in critically ill patients may influence its bedside prescription and practical application. Despite this, many aspects of CRRT may not be informed by evidence but remain a product of clinician preference.

Comments are closed.